The field “National security” comprises relevant indicators for describing and evaluating the capacity of the Romanian state to ensure a climate of stability and trust in the current geopolitical context. In contemporary approaches, the concept of security is not reduced to the defence component, but has implications for and is expressed in all major social fields. While threats and aggression against states have diversified (we are speaking nowadays of atypical and hybrid conflicts, economic, trade, information, psychological, media, cultural warfare), so have security policies. [read more]
From among these multiple aspects of security, the indicators that have been selected for the aggregator mainly refer to the defence of the country’s unity and territorial integrity, ensuring public order, democratic institutions and citizen safety, as well as the state’s capacity to give an efficient answer to the new threats and risks that characterize the world nowadays. In the same time, we have used indicators that offer relevant information for evaluating the international and regional security contexts and for identifying risk factors. In contemporary world, characterized by profound political and technological changes, as well as various economic, religious, ethnical conflicts, development and defence policies need to be approached jointly. It is true for all states that security means primarily development.
The objectives of our defence policy, strategies, resources and instruments, as well as institutions with responsibilities in this field (the army, the police, the Gendarmerie, intelligence and counterintelligence services) are explicitly defined in Romania’s National Defence Strategy. For a comprehensive image of the field, the main components are analysed and presented in four subfields: National defence; Public order; The National system of emergencies management; Cyber defence. The main indicators have been selected based on their relevance for one of the dimensions of national security. The comparative, multidisciplinary analysis of these indicators can help us build an adequate image of the Romanian state’s defence strategy and defence capabilities. As a NATO and EU Member State, Romania has the most powerful security guarantees.
National defence
Public order
The National System of Emergencies Management
Cyber defence
The indicators in this subfield focus mainly on Romania’s defence potential, defence expenditure, capacity to face conflicts and participate, as a NATO and EU Member State, in international missions for maintaining peace and stability in various regions of the world. In this context, the potential of Romania’s defence industry is relevant, as an important element in evaluating the capabilities for sustaining long-term efforts. Because data from internal sources are lacking, the main data source for this subfield is NATO’s website, which is based on official national reports, Romania included. A further trustworthy source is the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI). The analysis of the data shows that defence expenditure has increased in most states, the largest funds being invested in new technologies, while the number of combat military personnel has decreased. [read more]
To have a comprehensive view on the factors that influence the defence policy, various correlations can be made between indicators in the field of National security and other fields. For instance, when analysing defence expenditure relative to GDP, one can notice that it does not follow the general development lines (increase/decrease), but is rather an answer to a state of security/insecurity at global, and especially regional level. An example of interdisciplinary analysis is represented by defence expenditure per capita. While the government expenditure for defence indicates political decision and will, expenditure per capita represents an answer that reflects economy’s real potential to support the national defence effort. The defence expenditure relative to GDP (over 2%) is higher in Romania than in the Czech Republic, Bulgaria or Hungary, but the defence expenditure per capita is lower than in the Czech Republic or Hungary.
National defence is always correlated with indicators that describe states of stability or conflict at global/regional scale, a situation that can be analysed through the Global Peace Index, and the Global Terrorism Index, respectively. For an adequate image of this subfield, it is necessary to conduct a complex analysis of correlated indicators in the field of security.
The subfield Public order focuses on the capacity of state institutions to ensure public order, citizen security, protection of the community’s moral and cultural values and patrimony. The relevant indicators are: Criminal offences and Personnel in the criminal justice system, to which are added secondary indicators and World Internal Security and Police Index. The description of these indicators uses the methodology and data from Eurostat. [read more]
The main indicator Criminal offences illustrates the frequency of criminal offences and crime levels in society, as well the degree of uncertainty of individuals and community, impacting the way citizens perceive the democratic institutions’ capacity to ensure public order. Various crimes are presented with reference to EU average.
The main indicator Personnel in the criminal justice system, correlated with other indicators, shows the capacity of public institutions to ensure fair justice and to protect citizen security. To maintain social balance and public order, social security measures are important as well, such as unemployment benefits, illness benefits, child benefits, pensions, minimum wage, etc.
This subfield focuses on the capacity of public institutions to prevent, act in and manage emergencies, in order to control risks, ensuring citizens’ normal lives. These categories comprise the multitude of prevention activities, of interventions for saving people’s lives and services for resuscitation and extrication (see the Mobile Emergency Service for Resuscitation and Extrication – SMURD), extinguishing fires, limiting damage produced by floods, landslides, earthquakes, epidemics, epizootics, snow emergencies, drought, assisting people in critical situations, intervening in technological, radiation and nuclear accidents, biological accidents or other types of natural or man-made disasters. The operational and response capacity in emergencies represents an indicator that shows the state’s potential to support the population in critical situations, accidents or natural disasters.
For this subfield, the sources identified are mostly those focusing on technical aspects in cyberspace: types of malware attacks, types of viruses, timeframe, types of operating systems, etc. The sources rarely give information on their effects or categories of targets, objectives or losses caused by cyber incidents. The only statistical data from official sources are the annual reports of the Romanian National Computer Security Incident Response Team (CERT-RO). The data analysis shows an increase in the number of single IP addresses affected or targeted by cyber attacks. If to this upward trend we add ransomware events with a major media impact, we can conclude that cyber threats and vulnerabilities of the national cyber space continue to diversify and amplify. [read more]
Security institutions operate with two very important indicators: Cyber Power Index, which shows the integrated capacity to face offensive and defensive challenges in cyberspace, respectively Cyber Intelligence Index. The joint analysis of these indicators can reveal that Romania has limited defence capability, but which is reasonable relative to its economic potential and available strategic resources.
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